Trump, the economic charlatan

EDITORIAL – the The denial of reality and the use of magical thinking are two habitual behaviors of Donald Trump. It was inevitable that his disastrous economic approach would lead to an increase in inflation once more.

An article on what they referred to as “macroeconomic populism” was written by economists Rudiger Dornbusch, who was also one of my mentors, and Sebastian Edwards more than thirty years ago. Even if their approach had been initially motivated by the inflationary surges occurring under left-wing regimes in Latin America, it seemed obvious that the underlying problem – pursuing an irresponsible economic policy which provoked a balance of payments crisis and an explosion of inflation – was not linked to left-wing governance per se: current examples of this syndrome include left-wing governments such as that of Venezuela, but also right-wing nationalist governments like that of Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Turkey, who was convinced he could curb inflation by reducing interest rates.

Will these precedents soon be followed by the United States of America? It is my hope that people will refrain from referring to Donald Trump as a populist. In the end, he has never demonstrated any desire to assist working Americans, and his economic policies have not helped matters. His tax cuts in 2017, in particular, were a gift to those who were already wealthy.

Strong repercussions stemming from inflation

However, his actions during the COVID-19 outbreak have demonstrated that, just like every other small autocrat or would-be dictator, he is hooked to magical thinking and denial of reality. That being the case, it is highly probable that he will be confronted with the kinds of challenges that are brought about by policies that are founded on bogus economics if he is re-elected.

This is something that needs to be made clear: if Trump were to return to power, the most concerning aspect for me would not be the implementation of harmful economic policy. Seeing him take actions such as the creation of enormous detention camps for undocumented migrants, the possibility of him inflicting retributions on his political opponents, and other measures is something that bothers me an endless amount more.

Despite the fact that Republicans are blaming President Biden for the inflation that afflicted his time, it is crucial to highlight that Trump’s advisers are describing economic strategies that might have inflationary effects that are significantly more severe than anything we have seen before. This far.

Attempts to manipulate monetary policy

It has been pointed out by a number of analysts that certain economic measures put out by Trump will unavoidably result in an increase in inflation yet again. It would appear that the increased restrictions placed on immigration are one of the primary factors that have enabled the United States to achieve both robust economic growth and declining inflation.

There would be a rise in consumer costs as a result of the wave of new tariffs that the Trump camp is planning to implement. It is quite probable that Trump will raise taxes substantially higher than the 10% that he has said if they are unable to drastically cut tariffs. deficits in American trade, which they will not by any stretch of the imagination.

What is actually concerning, on the other hand, are hints that a hypothetical Trump administration might manipulate monetary policy for the purpose of gaining short-term political advantage by justifying its actions with peculiar economic concepts. Because governments have understood that, in reality, it is necessary to prevent partisan influence over interest rates and monetary creation, the Federal Reserve is a virtually independent organization. This is not because of any constitutional principle that is considered to be of the utmost importance.

Fantasies for the economy

However, in recent weeks, certain information has suggested that Trump’s advisors want to significantly restrict the independence of the Federal Reserve. This is most likely to allow the Fed to boost the economy and the stock market in the manner that Trump intended to do in 2019, and then insist that the Fed reduce interest rates to zero or even below zero.

It has also been asserted that Trump’s advisers, who are preoccupied with the trade deficit, would like to weaken the dollar. This would, in fact, be beneficial to exports, but it would also have apparent inflationary implications, such as increasing the prices of imports and overheating the economy of the United States. it is already heated enough.

The specifics of these awful ideas are perhaps less significant than what they represent, which is a mentality that disregards the difficult lessons that have been learned in the past and instead prefers to indulge in economic fantasies. How would President Trump respond if the situation became out of control? Let us not forget that he suggested conducting research into the idea of using disinfectant injections as a means of combating the Covid virus. How could we possibly anticipate that he would be less likely to engage in magical thinking in the face of, for example, another increase in inflation?

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