“A Trump victory and his Ukraine policy could divide Europe”

Who will be the first European leader to cross the Atlantic if the Republican wins November? In her “Le Monde” piece, Sylvie Kauffmann warns that the EU’s stance to the Kiev-Moscow confrontation represents its worst threat.

As expected, Viktor Orban opened the procession at Mar-a-Lago on March 8, the first European leader to visit candidate Donald Trump in his Florida home; he predicted a November 5 triumph for the former Republican president. The Hungarian Prime Minister was pleased with the trip: Trump gave this “great leader of Europe, this strong man” a true celebration and congratulations.

Since then, British diplomat David Cameron and Polish President Andrzej Duda have met President Joe Biden’s opponent in New York for dinner. The Briton had told the White House of his plan to lobby Congress for Ukraine funding, while the Pole’s was more unclear. Even though he supports Ukraine aid, right-wing nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party leader Andrzej Duda, who must work with pro-European Prime Minister Donald Tusk, expressed sympathy for Donald Trump when he was in office, inviting him to set up “Fort Trump” in Poland.

The next European visitor has yet to be confirmed, but if Donald Trump wins on November 5, transatlantic traffic will increase. This theory, which has alarmed several chancelleries since it became plausible, could divide Europe.

Will the first foreign leader to greet the president-elect be from the Pacific, like in 2016? On November 17, conservative Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe met with the president-elect at Trump Tower in New York just ten days after the election. Not only to talk about golf, their shared love. The current Prime Minister, Fumio Kishida, just made a notable visit to Joe Biden in Congress and avoided Mar-a-Lago, but who knows if Trump becomes president again, he will visit Canossa to counter the Chinese threat in the Indo-Pacific.

A brutal workout

The situation would be worse for Europeans. Viktor Orban may have his inaugural ticket, but others will want a moment of decency.

Now that Trump is allowing Putin to attack NATO partners, Europe may finally defend itself.

Berlin—Autonomy, though not strategic.

Trump released Europe from the American security bubble over the weekend.

“I would not protect you, in fact I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want,” Trump allegedly told a European leader of his response to a Russian attack. You must pay!

Never mind that Trump was discussing what he would do if NATO members didn’t spend 2% of economic production. He effectively shattered NATO by directly questioning America’s commitment to it.

Europe is alone, so reelection barely matters.

The election will only determine NATO’s collapse’s timing for Europe’s security.

However, the Biden government would argue that NATO will remain safe if their candidate is reelected.

But for how long?

Trump’s words have been debated because most right-thinking people believe they will harm American interests. That’s almost irrelevant for Europe now. Europe would be foolish to leave its security every four years to 50,000 American swing-state voters (the presidential election’s rough margin of victory).

Whatever happens in November, MAGA will remain a political force in America. Who says Trump’s Republican successor won’t be anti-NATO? Europe cannot disregard this risk.

The Republican party blocked a legislative package last week that included more much needed military help for Ukraine, showing Trump’s influence even as a candidate. The US Congress may grant Ukraine extra aid, but may not.

It’s perilous to trust America.

Europe must prepare a Plan B to avoid servitude to Russia.

Yet, European politicians remain in anger-cum-denial.

“Any suggestion that allies will not defend each other undermines all of our security, including that of the U.S., and puts American and European soldiers at increased risk,” NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said over the weekend, one of many statements criticizing the former president.

Now what?

Europe alone is responsible for the mess. Trump has criticized NATO laggards for years, but he didn’t develop the genre. American presidents since Eisenhower have grumbled about European allies freeloading on defense.

Europeans hate this: Trump is right—they’ve been freeloading. It was absurd to expect the U.S. to pay for European security forever.

After Trump lost to Biden in 2020, things seemed normal again. Biden, a lifelong transatlanticist, wanted to make up for Trump’s harm to NATO by letting Europe relax.

European defense spending has increased in recent years, as it should given Russia’s war on Ukraine, but it’s still not enough. Only 11 of NATO’s 31 countries are anticipated to fulfill the 2023 spending target, according to NATO data. Trump is furious because Germany hasn’t reached 2%. Due to its shrinking economy, it may this year.

Biden’s welcome misled Europe into a false sense of security. Europe hid in America’s shadows rather than pressuring industry to increase armament production and restoring conscription in countries like Germany.

Due to its affluent social welfare states and pacifist inhabitants, the Continent followed the easiest route (save for the Baltics and Poland).

After Russia invaded Ukraine in early 2022, Germany’s national discourse moved from war to heat pumps and mass migration. Despite increasing support for Ukraine, popular attention shifted. A poll released this week found that Germans’ assessment of Russia’s risks has dropped from first to seventh in the past year.

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